Interactive model
Market concentration simulator
Illustrative toy model — not a prediction of any real market. Turn network effects, switching costs, the flow of entrants and the odds of a platform shift up and down, and watch whether the market tips towards one winner or stays fragmented. The run is fully determined by the seed, so the link in your address bar reproduces exactly what you are looking at.
Illustrative toy model — not a prediction of any real market. Every number below is generated by the model on this page, not observed in the world.
What this model is, and is not
It is a teaching device. It has five starting firms, one abstract product, no prices, no costs, no regulation and no geography. Its ticks are not years, its firms are not companies, and nothing it outputs should be read as a forecast. What it does capture is the shape of three forces the rest of the Atlas documents with real data: share that compounds into more share, customers who cannot cheaply leave, and technology shifts that reset the board.
Every figure it produces is labelled modeled, the same standard applied to the derived figures elsewhere in the Atlas. The equations, constants and known limitations are written out on the methodology page.